Credit risk
Credit risk: best practices for predicting future risks
In today’s uncertain times, credit risk managers are under increasing pressure to provide robust, forward-looking insights on counterparties. Fitch Solutions explores the key pain points in the process and crucial steps to improving data quality
Looking beyond SA-CCR
An alternative calculation of exposure at default that handles complex portfolios is presented
Banks and financial powerhouses map out climate risks
A day after the hottest Double Ninth Festival on record in Hong Kong, experts gathered at Asia Risk Live at the Ritz-Carlton to explore how banks can manage climate risk for a net-zero economy
Forecasting the loss given default of bank loans with a hybrid multilayer LGD model by extending multidimensional signals
The authors employ signaling theory and machine learning methods to investigate loss given default predictions of commercial banks and propose a method to improve the accuracy of these predictions.
Performance validation of representative sample-balancing methods in loan credit-scoring scenarios
The authors validate 12 of the most representative sample-balancing methods used for credit-scoring models, finding that a combined SMOTE and Editor Nearest Neighbor method is optimal.
Credit risk, data and AI: managing spiralling demands and delivering value
Based on a comprehensive survey of, and conversations with, credit risk professionals globally, this report delves into their challenges they face in trying to source and use forward-looking data.
Podcast: Leveraging Real-time Data Feeds For Faster Business Decisions
The markets have been on a very volatile ride in 2022, which makes low-latency data more crucial to the business.
Estimating correlation parameters in credit portfolio models under time-varying and nonhomogeneous default probabilities
This paper proposes new maximum likelihood estimation methods that offer greater flexibility than current methods and can account for finite portfolio sizes, scarce default data and time varying, nonhomogeneous default probabilities.
Strong dollar pushes ANZ’s CVA charges up 57%
Risk-weighted assets rose A$1.4 billion in three months; biggest quarterly increase since mid-2019
Crédit Agricole VAR hits highest since 2010
Trading risk gauge rose as high as €27 million during Q3
Erste, RBI top up provisions with €258m in overlays
Austrian lenders remain reliant on model supplements as energy squeeze looms
Ulster Bank exit sheds £8.7bn off NatWest’s A-IRB credit RWAs
Reversal to standardised approach helps lower capital charges in Q3 despite €514m exit costs
EBA: more climate risk supervisory reporting is coming
Official anticipates effort to identify climate impact on internal models, concentration risk
Barclays frees up £4.5bn RWAs after overissuance clean-up
The bank unwound hedges that safeguarded its buyback of mis-sold US notes
Risks of long-term auto loans
The authors investigate the borrower risk factors, delinquency rates, yield curves, and interest rates of long-term auto loans.
Tapping into liquidity in the high-yield bond market: derivatives and lending markets
The iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield Index has served as the leading benchmark for the high-yield market since its debut in 2006.
Risk contagion and bank stability: the role of credit risk and liquidity risk
The authors put forward a systemic risk measurement model and measure systemic risk in China's banking sector for the period 2013-18.
HSBC’s quarterly UK provisions rose 111% in Q3
Uncertainty around interest rates and political stability reflected in model overlays
EBA to scrutinise banking book models amid macro turmoil
Banking regulator raises concerns as bankers doubt their IFRS 9 and IRRBB models
SCRA Best practice guide
The financial world has been familiar with the Basel III framework since its inception in 2010 and countless hours have already been spent tackling the 1,626-page tome and its various amendments over the years.
Quantification of model risk with an application to probability of default estimation and stress testing for a large corporate portfolio
This paper discusses the building of obligor-level rather than segment-level hazard rate corporate probability of default models for stress testing.
Some euro banks modelled lower mortgage risk in H1
Italian and Belgian lenders reported steepest drops in risk density despite recessionary threat
Hong Kong, India, Turkey lag behind on Basel III framework
Only Canada, Japan and Saudi Arabia ready for full implementation as January deadline approaches
A-IRB to lose credit risk reach under Basel III
Americas banks expected to generate just 40% of RWAs using internal models, from 67% currently