AI models point to recession, but quants won’t trade on them
Predicting the odds of a recession, and how markets will respond, is still a step too far for machines
The world’s economists put the likelihood of a US recession at 44% earlier this month, a number not seen outside of actual recessions. AI machines, too, are detecting signals of a slump.
Allianz Global Investors’ statistical systems for detecting recessions, built using artificial intelligence and machine learning, are currently pointing to “a very high level of recession risk,” says Michael Heldmann, the firm’s chief investment officer for systematic equity.
“If you take out the Ukraine war
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@risk.net or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.risk.net/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
More on Quant investing
Acadian model detects gaps between climate goals and reality
Quant shop builds tool for net-zero alignment assessment, using NLP and Bayesian models
Execs can game sentiment engines, but can they fool LLMs?
Quants are firing up large language models to cut through corporate blather
The quants who kicked the hornets’ nest – to champion causality
A small but influential cadre says the multi-trillion-dollar factor investing industry is based on flawed science
‘Brace, brace’: quants say soft landing is unlikely
Investors should prepare for sticky inflation and volatile asset prices as central banks grapple with turning rates cycle
Trend following struggles to return to vogue
Macro outlook for trend appears to be favourable, but 2023’s performance flop gives would-be investors pause for thought
Can machine learning help predict recessions? Not really
Artificial intelligence models stumble on noisy data and lack of interpretability
How patchy liquidity is stymieing systematic credit
…and what investors like AllianceBernstein, Man Numeric and Acadian are doing about it
How Man Numeric found SVB red flags in credit data
Network analysis helps quant shop spot concentration and contagion risks
