Journal of Operational Risk

Risk.net

Operational risk, capital regulation and model risk

Robert Stewart

  • Determining risk weights for operational losses is immeasurably complex.
  • Standardized models cannot capture the intricacies of operational losses worldwide.
  • An operational risk modeling framework must analyze operational losses from many perspectives using multiple models, ample benchmarks, and numerous back-tests.
  • An operational risk modeling framework should promote transparency, disclosure, openness, humility, and feedback loops.
  • An operational risk modeling framework must be flexible and dynamic given constantly changing economies, regulations, and technology.

Operational risk capital regulation is moving from internal to standardized models – from the advanced measurement approach to the standardized measurement approach. These proposed changes will lead to more of the same: politically connected banks will further decrease their equity financing, making bank failures and taxpayer-backed bailouts more likely. Yet the goal of operational risk modeling must be to create useful models that capture relevant aspects of reality and improve decision-making. Therefore, operational risk modeling should assimilate seven fundamental properties into an operational risk managerial framework: well-aligned incentives; awareness of of data inaccuracies; explanation of empirical realities; acknowledgement of unknown unknowns; communication of uncertainty; creation of feedback loops; and recognition of dynamics.

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