Scenario testing: What are severe but plausible scenarios?

Nita Kohli

Testing is foundational in evaluating an organisation’s resilience capabilities and overall preparedness. Consistent testing not only assesses strength but also enhances the muscle memory within an organisation, fostering more effective response and reaction during disruptive events. In this chapter, we discuss the critical aspects of testing operational resilience, covering the identification of SBP scenarios, the development of a comprehensive testing framework, and various approaches to effectively test resilience measures within an organisation.

According to Financial Conduct Authority, PS21/3:

Testing in a range of severe but plausible scenarios is intended to help firms identify areas where further resilience needs to be built. In carrying out testing and remediating any vulnerabilities, firms in turn should be better prepared for potential real-life disruption and reduce the number of such disruptions which could cause intolerable harm to consumers and/or market integrity.

Regulators stress the necessity of testing an organisation’s ability to uphold predefined impact tolerance levels during plausible severe scenarios. Viewed as proactive preparation, it allows for learning

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