Journal of Operational Risk

Risk.net

Integrating internal and external loss data via an equivalence principle

Ruben D Cohen, Jia Lu and Jonathan Humphries

  • A method is developed to combine external loss data (ELD) and internal loss data (ILD) via a principle of equivalence, linking loss count with time horizon through loss frequency.
  • The approach leads to a merger between ILD and ELD, with ELD acting to expand the data time horizon by several orders of magnitude to cover the ranges necessary for the analysis and benchmarking of scenarios and capital calculations.
  • The merger of ELD and ILD is accomplished without having to go through the conventional modelling procedures of writing codes to fit data into distributions and carrying out numerical computations and simulations.

An approach is presented to address the common and troublesome issue of data scarcity in operational risk analysis and modeling. The method uses external loss data to supplement internal loss data and operates by combining the two data sets via a principle of equivalence, linking the loss count with the time horizon through the loss frequency. Application of the principle, as described, leads to a merger between internal and external loss data, with implications for enabling the longer-term loss projections needed for scenario analysis, capital planning and stress testing. All this is accomplished in a rational and transparent way, without having to go through the conventional modeling procedures of writing complicated code to fit data into distributions and performing numerical computations and simulations.

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