Journal of Risk
ISSN:
1465-1211 (print)
1755-2842 (online)
Editor-in-chief: Farid AitSahlia
Range-based volatility forecasting: an extended conditional autoregressive range model
Haibin Xie and Xinyu Wu
Need to know
- An extended conditional autoregressive range (EXCARR) model is proposed to describe the conditional mean of the high-low price range.
- The EXCARR model not only takes the CARR model as a special case but also captures the asymmetric behaviors between the upward range and the downward range.
- Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of EXCARR over both the CARR model and the asymmetric CARR model.
- The outperformance of EXCARR increases with the asymmetry between the upward range and the downward range.
Abstract
This paper proposes an extended conditional autoregressive range (EXCARR) model to describe the range-based volatility dynamics of financial assets. Our EXCARR model not only takes the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model as a special case but also considers the asymmetry between the upward range and the downward range. Empirical studies performed on a variety of stock indexes show that the EXCARR model outperforms not only the CARR model but also the asymmetric CARR (ACARR) model in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. Hence, our EXCARR model provides a new benchmark for range-based volatility forecasting.
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