Journal of Risk Model Validation
ISSN:
1753-9579 (print)
1753-9587 (online)
Editor-in-chief: Steve Satchell
Rating momentum in the macroeconomic stress testing and scenario analysis of credit risk
Need to know
- With the focus on macroeconomic driven stress testing and lifetime impairment modeling it is of interest to understand how different model assumptions can impact the projection.
- The stylized fact of rating momentum can accelerate the loss timing significantly compared to the non-rating momentum case - causing loss underestimation if rating momentum is not captured.
- The multi-factor model sensitivity to macroeconomic correlation parameters is well-known but must be recognized.
Abstract
With a focus on multi-horizon macroeconomic credit loss projection models in stress testing and impairments, it is of interest to understand how, under stressed and bestestimate economic projections, different model assumptions can affect such projections. We focus on the popular factor model of credit risk with an added ratingmomentum feature, which violates the Markov property of the model. While in retail credit models it is obvious that past delinquency is an important predictor of state path, commercial models are often implemented as Markovian, conditional on the macroeconomic paths. We find that models that do take into account the stylized fact of rating momentum can accelerate the timing of the loss significantly, compared with the non-rating-momentum case. The exact effect depends on the scenario’s time horizon, severity and portfolio quality. In general it takes longer for differences to materialize for good quality portfolios, while the effect on lower rating quality portfolios can be almost immediate, with significant loss underestimation. The factor model sensitivity to the explained part of the macroeconomic factors versus idiosyncratic effects is well known but must be recognized in practice by regulators, as models with a small portion explained by the macroeconomic factors can protect the portfolio loss significantly.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net