Journal of Energy Markets
ISSN:
1756-3607 (print)
1756-3615 (online)
Editor-in-chief: Derek W. Bunn
Need to know
- We present a novel systematic commodity trading model utilizing a time-series momentum strategy.
- The main innovation is a scoring mechanism to generate buy and sell signals, including determining the position size.
- The model is applied to the German electricity futures market with its price drivers: momentum and volatility of the German front quarter, API2 coal and emissions.
- The application of the model yields improved risk-adjusted returns.
Abstract
We present a novel systematic commodity trading model utilizing a time series momentum strategy. The main innovation is a scoring mechanism to generate buy and sell signals, including determining the position size. The model is applied to the German electricity futures market and its price drivers: the momentum and volatility of the German front quarter, the Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index (API 2) coal and emissions. We test the systematic model on data from November 2010 to December 2019 for several strategies. The model outperforms a basic short sale model. The application of the model yields improved risk-adjusted returns. This paper provides, to the best of our knowledge, the first description of a systematic trading approach to German electricity futures.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net