Journal of Energy Markets

Risk.net

A market scoring mechanism for trading of German electricity futures

Tarjei Kristiansen

  • We present a novel systematic commodity trading model utilizing a time-series momentum strategy.
  • The main innovation is a scoring mechanism to generate buy and sell signals, including determining the position size.
  • The model is applied to the German electricity futures market with its price drivers: momentum and volatility of the German front quarter, API2 coal and emissions.
  • The application of the model yields improved risk-adjusted returns.

We present a novel systematic commodity trading model utilizing a time series momentum strategy. The main innovation is a scoring mechanism to generate buy and sell signals, including determining the position size. The model is applied to the German electricity futures market and its price drivers: the momentum and volatility of the German front quarter, the Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index (API 2) coal and emissions. We test the systematic model on data from November 2010 to December 2019 for several strategies. The model outperforms a basic short sale model. The application of the model yields improved risk-adjusted returns. This paper provides, to the best of our knowledge, the first description of a systematic trading approach to German electricity futures.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Risk.net? View our subscription options

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Risk.net account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here