Journal of Credit Risk
ISSN:
1744-6619 (print)
1755-9723 (online)
Editor-in-chief: Linda Allen and Jens Hilscher
Portfolio credit risk model with extremal dependence of defaults and random recovery
Need to know
- A portfolio credit risk model with random recovery rates is proposed.
- The skew t and skew normal copula are adopted to represent the dependent defaults and the dependent recovery rates of the obligors, respectively.
- A conditional Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed for estimating the probability of occurring large loss in the proposed portfolio model.
- The relative efficiency of the proposed algorithm is proved analytically and the efficiency of the algorithm is confirmed by simulation results.
Abstract
The extremal dependence of defaults, and negative correlation between defaults and their recovery rates, are of major interest in modeling portfolio credit risk. In order to incorporate these two features, we propose a portfolio credit risk model with random recovery rates. The proposed model is an extension of the traditional t-copula model for the credit portfolio with constant recovery rates. A skew-normal copula model is adopted to represent dependent random recovery rates. In our proposed model, various types of dependency between the defaults and their recovery rates are possible, including an inverse relation. We also propose a conditional Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for estimating the probability of a large loss in the model, and an importance sampling version of it. We show that the proposed Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is relatively efficient compared with the plain Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical results are presented to show the performance and efficiency of the algorithms.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net