Risk of prolonged rise in inflation spurs rate tightening talk
In 2011, policymakers worldwide face the twin challenge of maintaining economic growth while containing inflationary pressures. It was a challenge they managed in 2010, but there are already strong signs that in 2011 it will be much, much harder. Bond investors should be prepared.
All is quiet on the deflationist front. Whereas in 2010 the global deflation camp had economic soothsayers by the dozen to bolster their predictions, this year many of the prophets of deflation have disappeared, or even defected.
There is no need for a crystal ball to see why. Already in many of the major emerging markets, inflation figures are unusually high. January’s annualised consumer price inflation (CPI) came in at 4.9%, 6% and 8.2% in China, Brazil and India respectively. The exact cause
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