Articles by Sjur Westgaard
Explainable artificial intelligence for credit scoring in banking
The authors put forward an explainable machine learning model predicting credit default using a real-world data set provided by a Norwegian bank.
Measuring the effect of corrective short-term updates for wind energy forecasts on intraday electricity prices
This paper investigates the impact of wind energy updates on intraday prices and proposes the use of merit-order-based models to counter price uncertainties stemming from updates.
Estimating value-at-risk using quantile regression and implied volatilities
In this paper the authors propose a semi-parametric, parsimonious value-at-risk forecasting model based on quantile regression and readily available market prices of option contracts from the over-the-counter foreign exchange interbank market.
Performance of value-at-risk averaging in the Nordic power futures market
The authors investigate the performance of various value-at-risk (VaR) models in the context of the highly volatile Nordic power futures market, examining whether simple averages of models provide better results than the individual models themselves.
Value-at-risk in the European energy market: a comparison of parametric, historical simulation and quantile regression value-at-risk
This paper examines a set of value-at-risk (VaR) models and their ability to appropriately describe and capture price-change risk in the European energy market.
Optimal management of green certificates in the Swedish–Norwegian market
This paper proposes and investigates a valuation model for the income of selling tradeable green certificates in the Swedish–Norwegian market, formulated as a singular stochastic control problem.
Modeling superior predictors for crude oil prices
This paper provides an analysis of a broad spectrum of fundamental and nonfundamental indicators for crude oil prices.
Electricity futures prices: time-varying sensitivity to fundamentals
This paper looks at the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals.